Der Klassiker: Kane vs Guirassy, Musiala’s Absence, and the Title Race Dortmund Cannot Afford to Lose

Bayern Munich host Borussia Dortmund on Saturday with Harry Kane in lethal form, Jamal Musiala in the treatment room, and the Bundesliga title race hanging on the result. This is not just a rivalry. It is a referendum on whether anyone can catch Bayern.

Der Klassiker kicks off at the Allianz Arena on October 25. Bayern sit top of the Bundesliga. Dortmund are second. The gap is small enough that a Dortmund win would blow the title race wide open, and large enough that a Bayern win would effectively end it before November.

Harry Kane has been in lethal form this season. Serhou Guirassy has been Dortmund’s most reliable attacker. And Jamal Musiala, Bayern’s most creative player, is injured and unavailable .

That last detail is the one that matters most.

Musiala’s Absence Changes Everything

Bayern’s attacking structure is built around Musiala’s ability to operate between the lines. He is the player who receives the ball in tight spaces, turns, and either plays the killer pass or dribbles past the first line of pressure. Without him, Bayern’s attack becomes more direct, more predictable, and easier to defend.

Kane will drop deeper to compensate. That is what he does. He is not just a goalscorer. He is a playmaker, a link-up striker, a player who can hold the ball and bring others into the game. But dropping deeper means he is further from goal. And Bayern need him close to goal.

The alternatives are Serge Gnabry, who is a winger rather than a natural No. 10, and Michael Olise, who is brilliant but still adapting to the rhythm of German football. Neither is Musiala. That is the problem.

My Take: Dortmund’s Best Chance Is Also Their Biggest Trap

Dortmund will look at Musiala’s absence and see an opportunity. They will press higher, they will target Bayern’s midfield, and they will try to force mistakes. That is the right instinct.

But it is also the trap.

Dortmund’s defensive line has been shaky all season. They concede chances. They concede goals. And if they push too high against Bayern, they will leave space behind for Kane and Olise to exploit. Kane’s passing range is underestimated. He can find runners from deep. If Dortmund commit too many players forward, Bayern will punish them.

The key for Dortmund is balance. They need to press, but not recklessly. They need to attack, but not naively. Guirassy’s hold-up play will be crucial. If he can keep the ball, Dortmund can build. If he cannot, Bayern will dominate possession and eventually break through.

The Numbers That Favor Bayern

Bayern have won 12 of their last 15 Bundesliga matches against Dortmund. They have not lost at home to Dortmund since 2019. They have scored in every home game against Dortmund since 2014.

But records are not guarantees. Dortmund won the corresponding fixture in 2023, and they have the players to do it again. Guirassy is a different kind of striker to Robert Lewandowski or Erling Haaland, but he is effective in his own way. He is strong in the air, he holds the ball well, and he scores important goals.

The difference this time is Bayern’s midfield. Without Musiala, they are more functional, less creative. Joshua Kimmich will have to carry more of the creative burden. Leon Goretzka will have to make runs from deep. And Kane will have to be both scorer and creator.

That is a lot to ask. But Kane is capable of it. He has been doing it all season.

What Happens Next

Der Klassiker will not decide the Bundesliga. It is October. There are 27 matches still to play after this weekend. But it will decide something more important: whether Dortmund believe they can win the title, and whether Bayern believe anyone can stop them.

If Dortmund win, the title race is alive. If Bayern win, it is effectively over. And if Kane scores the winner without Musiala, the narrative becomes even simpler: Bayern do not need anyone else. They have Kane.

But football is not that simple. Dortmund have Guirassy. They have Adeyemi’s pace. They have the motivation of a team that has spent years watching Bayern lift the trophy. And they have nothing to lose.

This is the match that defines their season. Bayern expect to win. Dortmund have to believe they can.

The difference between those two things is the difference between a title race and a procession.